Sunday, 16 June 2013

Betting Special: The Likely Acquisitions

With Arsenal being linked to so many different targets, it’s sometimes good to take a step back and look at the players we have a real interest in; instead of reading articles from websites trying to get as many hits as possible. I did a similar piece two weeks ago, but the football world is ever-changing. Players that were "about to sign" are no longer targets. Let's have a look at the relatively objective betting odds.

For those who don’t know how odds work: eg. Let’s say Arsenal have a 300/1 chance of buying Messi, if I bet 1 pond that he will transfer to Arsenal and he does move to Arsenal before the end of the transfer window, I get 300 pounds (no matter what other people bet after me). If a lot of people bet on one thing happening, the pay-out becomes smaller. If 10 000 people bet that Messi is going to Arsenal, the odds will change to, let's say, 50/1; and if I place a bet when the odds are 50/1 I'll only get 50 pounds per 1 pound bet.

All the odds are only applicable up until the end of this transfer window. Most of the information is from and is relevant as of 16 June.

Ashley Williams
Odds: Arsenal (1/3), Liverpool (8/1)
He is the most likely player to sign for Arsenal this season, but a player that I think is unnecessary unless Wenger plans on selling Vermealen.

Julio Cesar
Odds: Arsenal (1/3), AC Milan (3/1)
I believe that Szczesny is good enough to be Arsenal's number one, but it has been reported that Wenger wants to buy a new goalkeeper. A couple of weeks ago betting was suspended on Cesar as a lot of people thought it was already a done deal with Arsenal. The betting has subsequently re-opened after the transfer was not completed as expected.

Marouane Fellaini
Odds: Arsenal (4/5), Manchester United (6/4).,Chelsea (8/1)
When I wrote my previous article Fellaini to join Arsenal was 16/1. Although we have a crowded midfield, he is a very good player.

Gonzalo Higuain
Odds: Arsenal (10/11), Juventus (11/10)
Another big odds changer: previously we were 9/1 at getting him. I think he would be addition!

Victor Wanyama
Odds: Arsenal (5/2), Liverpool (8/1)
Wanyama was a surprise target for many, including myself. Although he is cheaper, I think Fellaini is a better midfield option.

Wayne Rooney
Odds: Arsenal (5/2), PSG (4/1), Chelsea (5/1)
The best striker to play for England in a while. I think he would be a great player at Arsenal. Transfer fee and especially wages are apparently a stumbling block.

Odds: Arsenal (5/1), Liverpool (8/1)
The last player that Arsenal are favourites to sign. If certain other players are bought, it would be unnecessary to buy Michu. He is coming off of a great season and would probably fit in easily with regards to Arsenal's playing style.

David Villa
Odds: Tottenham (1/1), Arsenal (2/1), Manchester City (8/1), PSG (10/1)
It seems more and more likely that he is going to leave. Although he has had a couple of bad injuries, he is one of the world's best goal scorers.

Cesc Fabregas
Odds: Manchester United (13/8), Arsenal (15/8)
I don't think Fabregas will leave Barcelona, and if he does I would expect him to come to Arsenal.

Christian Benteke (13/2)
Stevan Jovetic (6/1)
Micah Richards (10/1)
Christian Tello (10/1)
Demba Ba (10/1)
Kevin-Prince Boateng (14/1)
Loic Remy (16/1)
Mario Gomez (16/1)
Stephan El Sharaawy (18/1)
Robert Lewandowski (18/1)
There were no Arsenal betting odds on Nani. The favourites were Galatasaray, Monaco and Juventus.

We seem to be in a better position than a few weeks ago and the odds are a lot lower than they were on more than one player.

Thanks for reading

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